With Cheltenham just a week away we’re looking at the top jockey market, where Paul Townend is the 1/2 favourite, with Nico de Boinville his closest competition at 9/2 and its 8/1 the rest of the field. In reality it is hard to look past the top two in the market, the sheer quality that they’re riding in the Graded races makes them look incredibly tough to beat, but can Nico upset the odds and beat Townend to the title?
Paul Townend will have his pick of the Mullins horses again this year, which if you concede that Mullins will win the trainers title, gives Townend a huge chance. However, Mullins had plenty of winners at the Dublin Racing Festival that didn’t translate to Townend success, with his second string beating Lossiemouth, Blue Lord and Facile Vega. Townend will again have a tough choice between two stars in a fair few races, Lossiemouth or Blood Destiny, Gaelic Warrior or Impaire et Passé, to name a couple. When you also consider that Townend won’t be riding the JP McManus horses either, and arguably Willie’s best chance of the week in Gaillard Du Mesnil, it’s easy to see a situation whereby Willie Mullins dominates the trainers title, without Paul Townend winning the jockeys.
Despite the slight negatives mentioned for Townend, when you consider his book of rides, he is the rightful odds-on favourite. He holds a major chance in the vast majority of Grade 1 races, if he doesn’t have the market leader, he will be on the 2nd or 3rd favourite in a lot of the races, and you’d be hard pushed to say you’d swap his book of rides for Nico de Boinville’s. On the Friday, for example, he could easily have the favourite in all 4 graded races with Lossiemouth or Blood Destiny, Embassy Gardens, Galopin Des Champs and Allegorie de Vassy. When you consider this, along with his strong hand in the Champion Chase, Mares Hurdle and the Ballymore, it is hard to see Townend not picking up at least 4 or 5 wins.
Nico de Boinville on the other hand, doesn’t have the same depth as Townend, but he certainly holds an extremely strong hand in the races he does have rides. Constitution Hill and Shishkin are both odds-on and it would be a serious shock should either of those lose, as well as Luccia in the mares’ novices’ hurdle, who many believe would have been good enough to win a Supreme, had she gone that route. I would certainly be shocked if he didn’t win all 3 of those races to start with.
If you look outside of those 3, Nico will fancy his chances on Marie’s Rock, whether that be in the Mares or the Stayers race and then he’ll be looking to pick up a few of the handicap races. Walking On Air looks to have a superb chance in the Pertemps and First Street would have chances in the County Hurdle if Nico rode him. He will probably need to nick a win on a bigger priced horse or two to land the jockeys title, but he does have previous for doing that. He landed the Marsh Novices Chase on Chantry House in 2021, when he took advantage of the odds-on favourite Envoi Allen falling early on, and Balco Coastal could be one to potentially consider doing the same, if he were to run in a small field in the Turners Chase this year.
To summarise, Townend is certainly the right favourite, his book of rides is filled with quality, but given his frailties at the DRF I would be very wary of backing him at 1/2. Nico de Boinville has 3 horses that he will expect to comfortably win, and if they do, he may only need to pick up 1 or 2 wins from elsewhere to land the jockeys title. Last time he won it, in 2019, he had just 3 winners, while 5 has been enough to win 6 of the last 8. Will Nico beat Townend? It’s a tough ask, but at the prices I’d be far more willing to give Nico a couple of pound than Paul.
Bets:
1. Nico de Boinville top jockey - 9/2 (SkyBet)
2. Mullins top trainer, de Boinville top jockey and JP McManus top owner - 16/1 (SkyBet)
A reminder that y0u can get a boosted 4/1 on Jonbon (Arkle) & Shishkin (Ryanair) both to win with BinkBet
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