By Ryan Skidmore
13:30 Grey Dawning 3pt win
14:10 Gaoth Chiul 1pt ew
14:50 N/A
15:30 Paisley Park 1pt ew
16:10 In Excelsis Deo 1pt ew
16:50 Dysart Enos 1pt ew
17:30 Whacker Clan 1pt win/Demnat 0.5pt ew
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13:30 - Turners Novices’ Chase
Grey Dawning 9/4 3pt win
I’m hoping to start the day with a bang in the Turners by backing Grey Dawning to win this, and I’d be happy to back him at anything over 2/1.
I think this horse is the most talented in the race by a fair distance and think he could win this impressively if he just touches up on his jumping.
He clearly needed the run on his first effort this season and since then has won emphatically twice, and sandwiched in between that, he was 2nd to Ginny’s Destiny at Cheltenham.
He made a horrendous mistake 2 out in that race and did remarkably well to even pick back up after that error, let alone be beaten just 3/4 a length come the finish. That was a massive effort and showed how big of an engine he has, and I fully expect him to reverse that form.
Competition is not that stiff in my opinion, with a lot of horses needed to improve. Of the others at the top of the market, Facile Vega has not been the force the camp expected and Iroko is coming off less than an ideal preparation. I fully expect Grey Dawning to win this.
14:10 - Pertemps Handicap Hurdle
Gaoth Chiul 7/1 1pt ew
The one I have landed on in a wide open Pertemps Final this year is Gaoth Chuil at 7/1.
I thought he was a bit unlucky to not beat Maxxum in Leopardstown last time when encountering a wide trip throughout.
I think he has got away lightly with just a 13lb rise for that run and his previous win over Farouk D’alene. That takes him up to a mark of 136 and while he is still relatively unexposed at the trip, he could be open to further progress, and looks a solid each way bet.
14:50 - Ryanair Chase
No bet
I have done enough circles in this race to make my head spin and still not come out with a definitive answer.
I’m happy to leave it alone and cheer on Envoi Allen for his 4th Cheltenham Festival success.
15:30 - Stayers’ Hurdle
Paisley Park 14/1 1pt ew
The stayer's division is one that is bang open and I think the market has Teahupoo in way too short at around 7/4, so I am looking to take him on.
The one I’ve landed on for an each way bet, with 4 places available, is the 12-year-old veteran Paisley Park at 14/1.
He has been beaten in three photos this season, firstly to Dashel Drasher when giving away 5lb, then to Crambo and then to Noble Yeats, both who are half the odds of Emma Lavelle’s star.
With that price discrepancy in mind, alongside his overall Cheltenham form, I think he is well overpriced to be running on strongly up the hill and with a bit of luck, he can reclaim his crown in this race a whole 5 years later!
16:10 - Plate Handicap Chase
In Excelsis Deo 12/1 1pt ew
The Plate is usually full of well handicapped horses but I’m not sure this year’s renewal has that.
The cases for Theatre Man and Crebilly are obvious ones, but they dominate the market and have no juice in their prices.
A horse I do think could be well handicapped is In Excelsis Deo for Harry Fry, for he has only gone up 6lb this season for going close 3 times.
He gained vital course experience when running over 2 miles this season, having valid reasons for not winning on both occasions there. He then looked all over the winner at Sandown before unseating his rider at the last.
I think the step up in trip will really see his jumping improve as he shouldn’t have to go so quickly, this will hopefully enable him to gain some confidence as he goes around and then if he gets the trip, which he now shapes like he wants, then he could well be there with every chance.
16:50 - Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle
Dysart Enos 9/2 1pt ew
It is clear that Brighterdaysahead and Jade De Grugy are very well regarded by their stables, and they will probably prove the best of this lot in time, but I do think Dysart Enos may be the one suited by this specific test today.
Fergal O’Brien’s mare is unbeaten over rules and has been placed perfectly this year to win 3 hurdle races without picking up a penalty, meaning she gets 5lb from the pair mentioned above.
She looks to be all speed which suits this C&D and she has also has experience at the track for a further plus. I was hoping for 5/1, but I am happy to back her for some each way thievery at 9/2 and accept a minor loss if she doesn’t win.
17:30 - Kim Muir Handicap Chase
Whacker Clan 10/1 1pt win
Demnat 40/1 0.5pt ew
The Kim Muir is probably not my favourite race of the week, but I am having a couple of darts at it with Whacker Clan and Demnat.
The case for Whacker Clan is fairly obvious as he he been aimed at this race ever since his win at the course in November. That form has taken a boost this week too as the 2nd place that day, Twig, finished 2nd in the Ultima this week.
He has since had a spin over hurdles to blow some cobwebs away and the fact that he will be ridden from the front is always a bonus at this course for me. The ground is an obvious concern but the 10/1 compensates that for me as I think he looks well treated off a mark of 131.
Demnat is less obvious and is much more of a flyer in all honesty, but he is totally unexposed at the trip and will absolutely love the ground.
He was so impressive on his first go for Venetia Williams (who won this race with Chambard 2 years ago), when winning by half the track at Ludlow off a 961-day break. He wasn’t as good at Newbury, but 2 miles probably didn’t suit, and I think he is worth a go at this trip today and can hopefully just keep galloping.
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