By Ryan Skidmore
13:30 - Firefox 1pt win
14:10 - JPR One 0.5pt EW
14:50 - Chianti Classico 1pt ew
15:30 - N/A
16:10 - N/A
16:50 - Milan Tino 2pt ew
17:30 - N/A
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13:30 - Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
Firefox 6/1 1pt win
With the absence of Ballyburn, the Supreme looks to have been blowed wide open, and the market reflects that with Tullyhill and Mystical Power sharing favouritism at around 3/1 at the time of writing.
Both of those hold obvious claims for Willie Mullins who obviously has an excellent record in the race, but they look short enough to me with connections also not seemingly knowing who is best. Slade Steel has an obvious each way chance based off his form so far this season, but I have him more of a stayer and think he could be outpaced before running on into the frame.
The one I have been on for a while is Firefox and although I have a bigger price ante post, I don’t hate the 6/1 available on him now. Gordon Elliott’s horse has strong bumper form and kicked his campaign off by beating the aforementioned Ballyburn, even if he wasn’t fully fit that day. I fancied him to win the Lawlor’s Of Naas and he travelled well throughout that, but he wasn’t right that day which makes sense as to why his finish was so weak.
The race maps out well for him with some keen goers likely to have a bit of a burn up, that should allow Jack Kennedy to sit off them and wait until the race starts to collapse. He actually reminds me a bit of Abacadabras who was just touched off by Shishkin a few years back, just hopefully he won’t be picked up late by another a Henderson horse as I do think Jeriko Du Reponet is the strongest of the English challenge.
14:10 - Arkle Novices’ Chase
Jpr One 10/1 0.5pt ew
This race looks a very tricky one to solve but I am going to give it a go.
I have been leaning towards Jpr One over the last few weeks and that is the way I have ended up going. He comes with here with a solid body of work this season, running in most of the graded 2m novice chases in England and arguably comes here off a career best when winning the rearranged Lightning Chase at Lingfield. He was value for more than the winning distance that day as he idled in front, allowing Matata to close in the latter stages.
If the race was run right-handed I would no doubt be saying Gaelic Warrior would win, but it is not so I have to oppose him at the price of around 3/1 considering it is left-handed and he is coming off an awful run.
I can’t split a lot of the other Irish contenders and do question how good they actually are, notably Hunters Yarn, who was a blow out in the County Hurdle last year.
Jpr One might not be a superstar but his jumping should hold him in good stead in a below par renewal of the race and the 10/1 available looks more than fair.
14:50 - Ultima Handicap Chase
Chianti Classico 15/2 1pt ew
The Ultima has been a race dominated by British trainers for the last few decades and I fancy it to stay that way again this year despite the obvious claims at the front of the market for Meetingofthewaters and The Goffer.
Chianti Classico is my idea of the most likely winner of the race for Kim Bailey; who clearly targets this race and has had horses of similar profiles go close in recent seasons in Vinndication and Happygolucky. This horse has translated his hurdles form over to fences readily; looking a natural on his first go at Chepstow when destroying a useful field and then gave away a lot of weight at Ascot to make it two wins in a row.
His best effort for me though came last time out when 2nd at Kempton to a course specialist in Flegmatik, who has since gone on to run well in the Coral Trophy. I thought he ran a huge race there considering he travelled wide throughout and was always going to find it hard to peg back the winner who had got first run on him.
He has clearly been put away for this race of his mark of 143 and I think he will definitely be in the shake up come the end of the race, making him rate a solid each way bet at anything over 5/1.
I would have Victtorino as a potential threat if he got his jumping together, but his last few runs have been worrying in that regard, nevertheless at anything over 20/1, I may have a small win bet on the exchanges.
15:30 - Champion Hurdle
No Bet
State Man will be near impossible to beat, and I see worse 1/3 chances than him on a daily basis, so there is no obvious bet here.
You’ll probably be looking towards the without markets and do think my old favourite Not So Sleepy will run a good race on ground he will love.
16:10 - Mares Hurdle
No Bet
Although there are concerns about the stamina of Lossiemouth over the trip in testing ground, I find it incredibly hard to actually take her on directly. If she does get the trip, Willie Mullins’ mare, she clearly has the best form in the race and won’t be beaten, so the way to play must be in the without markets; but I can’t split a lot of these and will be leaving the race alone.
16:50 - Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Milan Tino 11/2 2pt ew
Connections of Milan Tino are surely laughing their heads off at the fact their horse has been dropped 10lb for finishing just a length behind Burdett Road and 11 lengths behind Sir Gino, who let’s face it, will be very hard to beat if all is well come Friday in the Triumph Hurdle.
That 10lb drop leaves Milan Tino on a mark of 126 which just has to leave him well handicapped based off his runs this season. Both of those runs have come at Cheltenham too which has to be viewed as a positive, giving him vital experience of the course unlike most of his rivals in this. I also quite like the fact he has showed his that he can be ridden in different ways dependent on the way the race is run, and that he will cope with testing conditions as it looks likely to be soft ground at best.
This race is a weird one in terms of connections essentially ‘cheating’ to get a mark in most cases, but even so I don’t think many will be better off than Milan Tino and he would be one of my strongest bets of the week and I think anything over 4/1 makes for a good each way bet as I can’t see him out the frame.
17:30 - National Hunt Chase
No Bet
This race has had a disappointing turn out for sure, it would certainly be a race I’d scrap. I was half leaning towards Salvador Ziggy for it, but I just wonder whether he is classy enough to win this and then I couldn’t split Corbetts Cross and Embassy Gardens, neither I’m not sure really want this trip. All in all, I am happy to leave it alone and keep some ammo for later in the week, unless Salvadore Ziggy goes above 10/1 anyway and then I will be pulling the trigger!
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