13:20 – Turners Novice’s Hurdle
I think this race has an extremely deep field this year and you can get a big price about some nice horses. However, I have been with THE NEW LION for a while now and just think he may prove a class above his rivals.
He couldn’t have won any easier in the Challow Hurdle – now I know that the form doesn’t look amazing and I know that no horse has won this race after the Challow since BC – but I think Dan Skelton’s horse is capable of bucking that trend.
His main market rival, Final Demand, will surely want softer ground than it is likely to be and same comments could apply to The Yellow Clay.
I think you can make each-way cases for Potters Charm and Kaid D’authie but I feel like I’m playing for the place part only. I can’t wait to see The New Lion and at 9/4, I am on.
THE NEW LION 9/4 2PT WIN
14:00 – Brown Advisory Novice’s Chase
You don’t need me to tell you Ballyburn is the most likely winner of this race but at odds of 4/6 he is certainly no bargain.
My one question with him would be his jumping, I’m not totally convinced about the shape he makes over his fences. However, the step up in trip to 3 miles should let him travel at ease.
If I was to take him on, it would probably be with Better Days Ahead who I think has the best form of the rest over fences, but I don’t rate him a betting proposition at just 8/1 all the same.
14:40 – Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle
Dan Skelton comes here in search of a 3rd successive win in this race and holds an excellent chance of doing so with BE AWARE who has very obvious claims.
He began the season by finishing 2nd in the Greatwood Hurdle to Burdett Road, who was only rated 133 at the time, now a 150 horse who has finished 2nd (rather fortunately mind) in a Champion Hurdle. I actually think he would have won that day if he was ridden a bit more prominently too, so a 7lb rise wasn’t the end of the world.
He ran a sound race at Ascot following that and again shaped like he wanted further, just outpaced at an important stage. His mark has been protected since then and he gets thatstep up in trip here and at 4/1, he is a disgusting each way bet as I really struggle to see him out of the finish.
The other horse I am interested in is IMPOSE TOI who has been also been targeted at this since a way out. He has only ran once this season, winning a decent handicap at Newbury in good style. He is up 7lb for that but he is still lightly-raced and could have more improvement in him off a mark of 141.
Nicky Henderson has won this race twice in the last twice in the last six years so clearly knows what it takes to win the race and maybe the addition of cheek-pieces will give that tad more improvement too and I think he is a fair each way bet at 15/2.
BE AWARE 4/1 2PT EW
IMPOSE TOI 15/2 1PT EW
15:20 – Cross Country Chase
You either love or hate this race and I will love it if MISTER COFFEY finally comes good.
He has been finished 2nd in two races over this funny course this season and the most recent one was very eye-catching when he was given a lot to do but ran on strongly.
He is 5lb better off with Stumptown for that run and I think he can turn it around with a slightly more prominent ride. I think he is very solid at 15/2 each way with 5 places generally available.
MISTER COFFEY 15/2 1PT EW
16:00 – Champion Chase
I expect Jonbon to take all of the beating here and I actually think 10/11 is pretty fair about him winning that. At a big price, I could see Libberty Hunter running a nice race for the ruckers.
16:40 – Grand Annual Handicap Chase
I actually think this is a fairly weak renewal of the Grand Annual and it has led me to going with the ‘class’ angles. I like both JPR ONE off top weight at 8/1 and MY MATE MOZZIE off 11st 9lb at 15/2. Both of whom ran in the Arkle.
This race is generally ran at a quick pace and I think that will suit both of these horses who are notably strong travelers through their races.
JPR One has ran well on the whole this season and his Haldon Gold Cup win looks especially good now as giving weight to Djelo was no mean feat. He generally runs better on good ground too so I think he should relish conditions.
MY MATE MOZZIE 15/2 1PT EW
JPR ONE 8/1 1PT EW
17:20 – Champion Bumper
I genuinely do not have a clue who wins this race and to be honest, don’t really care!
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