Champions League: Round of 16 Early Betting Preview

Champions League Round of 16 Draw Breakdown

The Champions league draw took place yesterday at noon and gave us some enticing ties, at times given UEFAs plagued history of corruption it’s hard to believe that these draws are completely random chance. We all know how the draw works but for those who are unclear the group winners are in one pot and the runners up in a second pot. You can’t draw a team from your nation, nor can you draw the team that was in your group. Take Liverpool for example- they finished runners up to Napoli, whom they couldn't draw, but they also couldn’t draw an English side and with all 3 other English teams winning their groups this left them with only 4 available teams- Porto, Bayern Munich, Benfica or Real Madrid. They eventually landed the 13 times champions Madrid and that’s the first tie we’ll preview.

Liverpool Vs Real Madrid- 1st Leg 21st February

The two most successful teams in European history meet again in what is a rematch of last year’s final in which Madrid won 1-0. It’s hard to predict who will be favourites come mid February and the bookies agree pricing qualification at 4/5 for the English side making the reigning champions outsiders at 19/20. With away goals no longer having an effect it doesn’t really matter who plays each leg at home, however something I think is of particular interest would be Liverpool’s fixture in and around their ties against the European giants. As things stand they’re scheduled to face Everton at home the weekend prior to the first leg in what will be a must win game given its huge status across Merseyside. Sandwiching the European tie is a trip to St James Park where they’ll face a team who could well be an established top 4 challenger in Newcastle meaning they’ll have no let up in the league to prep for Madrid. This will be the same with the second tie when they face Manchester United in another northern derby on the weekend before their midweek Madrid visit. That’s another side that will be determined to prevent them from gaining top 4 and will also be certain to put a challenge in leaving a frail ageing Liverpool team with more knocks potentially. Madrid are in a similar boat facing city rivals Atletico immediately after the first leg, then title rivals Barcelona immediately after the second. Both teams will be performing under high pressure but I favour Ancelotti’s men to squeeze through at 19/20. The fact Madrid have won 5 of the last 6 matchups also has to be taken into account, and whilst the personnel will have changed I think the mentality will remain and that will see the champions through.

Borussia Dortmund Vs Chelsea 1st Leg 21st February

Moving from Klopp’s current side to his previous team Dortmund will host Chelsea in a matchup that the bookies are favouring Chelsea quite heavily. The Blues are 4/9 to qualify relative to the Yellow Wall’s price of 13/8 and that’s something that I think could be value. Striker Aubameyang will return to the stadium where he became a household name but his record for Chelsea, as is always the case with star strikers since Drogba, has been poor. For Dortmund he fired in 141 across 213 but Dortmund’s new star is 17 year old Youssoufa Moukoko who is yet to score in his 6 CL games, but leads Dortmund in the league with 6 in 13. He’ll be desperate to get his first CL goal in this upcoming round but playing against a Chelsea side that’s only conceded 4 in the groups could be a tough ask. With no previous head to head to go off this will come down to how much Graham Potter has got Chelsea clicking come February and whilst I appreciate the credentials of the 2021 winners I just wouldn’t be backing them at such a short price.

RB Leipzig Vs Manchester City 1st Leg 22nd February

Speaking of short prices Manchester City make their 3rd trip to West Germany to face off against Leipzig where they’re 1/7 favourites to progress and 8/13 to actually get the win on German soil. City look imperious at the moment and have already swept aside German opposition in the groups taking 4 points from Dortmund including a 2-1 victory at the Ethiad. Say what you like about the Ethiad but Man City know how to make it a fortress on these European nights having gone unbeaten in 23 which equals the record their Manchester rivals set between 2005-2009. Given that the last time City hosted Leipzig they battered them 6-3 on opening night last year I’d expect them to break that record come the second leg and they’ll progress through easily. The German side will hope to keep hold of Frenchman Nkunku who put up 33 goals/assists in 34 domestic league games last year and has set off with 11 in 13 this year. If he leaves in January then Leipzig’s chances sink even lower, but should he stay they’ll still have a chance albeit one the bookies have priced at 9/2.

AC Milan Vs Tottenham Hotspurs 1st Leg 14th February

Antonio Conte will return to the San Siro as Spurs make their first trip to face off against the reigning Serie A champions since 2011. Both sides have changed massively since then, AC Milan have collapsed from that great era and rebuilt to win their first title after Juventus’ era of dominance. Spurs meanwhile have mainly only changed personnel wise given that they have “the history of the Totten-ham” as Italian centre half Giorgio Chiellini effectively branded them bottlejobs after their CL defeat to Juventus in 2018. Under Conte they’ve been incredibly up and down but you feel they have enough to take advantage of a Milan team that’s been plagued by injuries and has had to rely on former Arsenal & Chelsea striker Olivier Giroud who’s bagged 4 this year in Europe. Milan had been set on winning group D before capitulating against Chelsea in both games, whereas SPurs benefitted from being in a Europa League level group and only just scraped through as group winners courtesy of a Hojberg last minute winner. Spurs are priced at 1/2 to qualify compared to Milans 6/4. Neither of these appeal to me and I think a draw in the first leg at 12/5 is the selection, with Spurs getting it done on home soil in the second leg.

PSG Vs Bayern Munich 1st Leg 14th February

That’s all the English sides previewed but it’d be criminal to not talk about the tie of the draw which sees a repeat of the 2020 Covid final between PSG and Bayern Munich. PSG are one of only a few sides that are unbeaten in Europe’s top 5 leagues this season but Bayern Munich are a different level to what the Parisiens beat up domestically. That 2020 final saw PSG youth product Kingsley Coman score the single goal to win the trophy for the German side for a 6th time. PSG meanwhile still seek their first title and have gone all out with the addition of the GOAT Lionel Messi whilst also giving starboy Kylian Mbappe a share of the club to keep him in pursuit of European glory. The bookies seem to be favouring the experience of Munich over the explosive attack of PSG pricing the French outfit at 21/20 to qualify which I’d snap off and take. Bayern are an ageing side with key signing Sadio Mane struggling to fully integrate into the system. In fact former PSG (and Stoke) boy Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting has been the main man this season scoring 9 in his last 7. Whether this form prevails until February is highly unlikely but it shows the shift that Bayern have undergone with the loss of Robert Lewandowski. Meanwhile PSG continue to dominate with Mbappe recording 7 goals and 3 assists and Messi 4 a piece. I think this season will be the changing of the guard with PSG becoming the European giants that they’ve spent billions of euros and 10 years trying to become.

Best of the Rest

The ties on paper become a little bit more reminiscent of Europa League matchups now in particular Eintracht Frankfurt VS Napoli (21st February) however Napoli are unbeaten domestically and have only lost to Liverpool in what was a dead rubber match last week. They’ve won 9 straight in Italy and are the most exciting team in Europe right now and with a tie against a Frankfurt side that has conceded 21 in 13 in the Bundesliga I expect them to qualify easily and would even consider their 4/11 price very good value. Built with a solid defence, having reinvested the Koulibaly money well, they also have a lightning attack led by Victor Osimhen and of course the Georgian Neapolitan himself Kvicha “KvaraDonna” Kvaratskhelia who has been sensational since arriving from Rubin Kazan. Expect 3-0 wins in both legs as Napoli have shown they can punish sides becoming only the 3rd side in history behind PSG & Bayern Munich to score 20 goals in their first 5 group games. Napoli 4/11- get it backed.

I’ll also be doubling it up with Benfica to qualify against Club Brugge (1st leg 15th February). Benfica surprised everyone by topping a group that included PSG and also Juventus, the Portuguese side exchanged draws with PSG and did the double over Juve and Maccabi Haifa putting the Isreali side to the sword 6-1 in order to top the group on away goals. Whilst Brugge have been another surprise team toppling Atletico Madrid I don’t think they’ll be able to cope with the intensity of the Portuguese side. Benfica quite comfortably beat Porto in their domestic clash whilst Brugge tallied a 4-0 win and a 4-0 loss. That victory came despite being out shot and out possessed, whilst Benfica were disciplined and methodical at breaking down Porto in a game that was marred by bookings. For me Benfica have the pedigree to see off Brugge and priced at 3/10 the bookmakers agree.

The last game features the aforementioned Porto who’ll visit the San Siro (22nd February) to face a struggling Inter Milan. Inter languish in 7th despite the reacquisition of striker Romelu Lukaku who’s been plagued by injuries. Their defence has also weakened significantly, when they won the Scudetto in 2020/21 they had the best defence in the league but have already shipped 19 in 13 this season and will struggle to keep a clean sheet against high scoring Porto led by Iranian striker Taremi. English readers will want to make note of Taremi as he’ll lead the line against England at the upcoming World Cup and I expect he’ll fire Porto through to the quarterfinals. The bookies disagree and have priced Porto as slight underdogs at 19/20 compared to Inter’s 4/5. This is the same pricing as the Real Madrid Liverpool clash and in both instances I’d be backing the slight underdogs, with a double on those two sides paying 14/5.

Early Betting

As just mentioned I like both Porto and Real Madrid and that double at just under 3/1 looks good to me. My other key selections would be the Napoli, Benfica and PSG treble that pays just over 5/2. Obviously Manchester City could be added in but at 1/7 they’re incredibly short. If you’re a punter who prefers big stakes on short odds then sub out PSG for Manchester City and you get a return of just over evens. Obviously we have 3 months and a whole World Cup before these games are played but if you’re a football addict like me then you’ll be eager to plot out who will progress.

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