By Jack Daly
FC Barcelona v Inter Milan
20:00 BST, Wednesday
TV Channel: BT Sport
Barcelona 2/5, Draw 15/4, Inter Milan 6/1
Barcelona 7+ corners & Inter 1+ card – 9/5
Another chapter is set to unfold in this historic battle between two giants of European football. This will be the 11th meeting between the two clubs who share 8 European Cups between them. Barcelona have had the better of the battle but who can forget the famous win for the Italians in 2010 on their way to tournament victory under The Special One.
Barca are heavy favourites for this battle even after their loss at the San Siro last week. A single on an Inter Milan win may not be the worst idea at 6/1. However, I’m looking at the corners and cards markets after the double winning selection in last nights Champions League games.
Barcelona are a corner machine, with 27 corners taken in their 3 Champions League games so far including 13 corners in the reverse fixture last week. With home advantage I expect them to be on the front foot, exerting pressure on the Inter goal and forcing corners. 7+ Barcelona corners is my fancy tonight.
Inter do not have a good disciplinary record, especially in Europe. They have picked up 9 yellow cards in Europe already this season, averaging 3 per game. They picked up 5 yellow cards (6 if you’re including the manager) against Barcelona last week as they struggled to get close to the tricky Spaniards. They have picked up at least 2 yellow cards in 6 of their last 8 matches, with all 3 Champions League matches seeing them pick up at least 2 yellow cards. I fancy a simple 20+ booking points for Inter this evening to supplement the Barcelona corners
Score Prediction: FC Barcelona 1-1 Inter Milan (15/2)
Sporting v Marseille
20:00 BST, Wednesday
TV Channel: BT Sport
Sporting 5/4, Draw 12/5, Marseille 11/5
1+ Sporting card, Under 4 Marseille cards, Under 12 corners in the match – 11/10
This was a comfortable win for Marseille last week as they breezed to a 4-1 win against Sporting Lisbon. However, this doesn’t tell the whole story. Adan, the Sporting keeper, was sent off for a crazy challenge after just 23 minutes, from this point on it was an uphill battle for the Lions.
I expect this fixture to be closer than the reverse last week, I can only assume that a goalkeeper won’t be sent off withing the first 25 minutes! Marseille are the outsiders for this fixture but I quite like the draw at 12/5 if you’re looking for a simple bet. The group is very tight with only 3 points separating first and last, so all results are in play.
Call me crazy but I’m going for a treble in todays game, including 2 ‘under’ selections. The unders are a risky strategy but the stats back them up.
Sporting love a yellow card, by half time in last weeks game they had racked up 55 booking points (1 red, 3 yellows). They have picked up 6 yellow cards across the 3 Champions League games this season. They are even more ill-disciplined in their domestic league averaging 3.45 yellow cards per game, this is a team who collect yellows like they’re going out of fashion. I’m going for a simple 1+ Sporting card in this treble.
Now time for the Unders.
In contrast to Sporting, Marseille do not have as much interaction with the referee. The French giants have picked up just 4 yellow cards in their 3 Champions League matches this season and have only committed 5 fouls in their defensive half during this time. They have averaged 2 yellow cards per match in Ligue 1 this season but have picked up 0 yellow cards in their last 2 matches. I’m going for under 4 cards in the match for Marseille.
My second Unders pick is in the corner market. Sporting have averaged just 3 corners per match in Europe this season, with Marseille averaging even less with just 2.67 per match. Their league stats are slightly higher with the Portuguese outfit average 5.1 corners and Marseille averaging 4.3 corners. Therefore, I’m going for Under 12 corners in the match for both teams combined. If you’re feeling brave, then the stats indicate even less corners so Under 10 is also a good option to up the odds.
Score Prediction: Sporting 1-1 Marseille (5/1)
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