By Jack Daly
AC Milan v Chelsea
20:00 BST, Tuesday
TV Channel: BT Sport
Milan 2/1, Draw 23/10, Chelsea 13/10
Both Teams 20+ booking points - Evens
In what could now be known as the Olivier Giroud affair, we see two European powerhouses collide. 90s v 00s, old money v new money, this game has plenty of history behind it despite it being only the seventh time that these two teams have shared the same pitch. Both teams have been a shadow of their former selves in recent years and have had mixed starts to this seasons Champions League campaign.
With both teams level on 4 points in Group E and needing a win to all but secure their passage into the Champions League Knockout Stage I fancy a feisty affair.
I fancy some bookings on Tuesday evening, with both teams looking to grab the game by the scruff of the neck. Milan have averaged 2.67 yellow cards in the Champions League and 2.3 yellow cards in Serie A this season and have collected 20+ booking points in 9 out of their last 10 outings. Similarly, Chelsea have averaged 2 yellow cards in the Champions League and 2.1 yellow cards in the Premier League, with 9 of their 11 outings this season seeing them pick up at least 2 yellow cards.
20+ booking points offers good value with bookies offering just over Evens.
This fixture last week saw Chelsea pick up 2 yellow cards whilst their Italian rivals picked up 3, all within the first half.
I expect to see similar this week with both teams in buoyant mood after picking up important victories on the weekend and climbing their respective league tables. They’ll want that form to translate to the Continental stage and will need to be up for this game to take anything from it.
Score Prediction: AC Milan 1-2 Chelsea (Bet365 odds: 17/2)
FC Copenhagen v Manchester City
17:45 BST, Tuesday
TV Channel: BT Sport
Copenhagen 14/1, Draw 17/2, Man City 1/7
BTTS No & Over 5.5 City corners – 6/5
This game ought to be a walk in the park for City so I’m going to steer away from the Result & Handicap market and try and find value elsewhere. There isn’t much value to be found in many singles across this game, so I’ve gone for a double.
FC Copenhagen were thrust into a mini Group of Death when their ball was chosen for Group G alongside Man City, Borussia Dortmund and Sevilla. Those three clubs all with vast European pedigree and European finals under their belts. So it is of little surprise that FC Copenhagen are yet to register a goal in this seasons competition. With just 4 shots on target in 3 games they haven’t been the most potent of teams. They have a combined 1.64 xG in 270 minutes of football in this competition so I don’t expect them to threaten Ederson in the City goal.
City on the other hand have scored 11 goals in their 3 games and dispatched their Norwegian rivals 5-0 in Manchester last week. City have conceded only 3 shots on target against them this season, none of them coming from Copenhagen last week who mustered a 0.26xG. The only player to score against the Citizens this year being boy wonder Jude Bellingham.
The corner market is where I’ve turned to next with City’s dominant wing play resulting in plenty of corners. They average 6.67 corners in Champions League games this season and 6.5 in the Premier League, a consistent number. They registered 7 in this fixture last week against a team who sat back after conceding after only 7 minutes (no prizes for guessing who scores City’s opener). I expect them to register more corners in this game against a more positive Copenhagen outfit who will look to give the home fans something to cheer about to warm them up in the cold Norwegian evening.
Over 5.5 City corners with Both Teams NOT to score is offered at 6/5 across most bookmakers, this is where we can find some value in an otherwise predictable affair.
Score Prediction: FC Copenhagen 0–4 Manchester City (15/2)
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