Bets of the day (previews below):
13:55 (£5 free bet race)
Montassib 2pt EW
14:35
Kalpana 1pt WIN
Sea Theme 0.5pt EW
15:15
Charyn 3pt WIN
15:55
Nashwa 0.5pt EW
Nashwa W/O Favs 1pt EW
16:35
Holloway Boy 1pt EW
13:20 – Long Distance Cup
Kyprios is the well deserving short priced favourite for this race and I have no real want to take him on, even though he was beaten by the reopposing Trawlerman in this contest last year.
He is unbeaten this season, winning 6 from 6, winning in all months since April barring August – quite an effort – especially after only being seen twice the previous year due to injury.
The race has a good each way shape to it with it being 5/1 bar Kyprios but I do feel you are playing for places so am willing to let him win at odds of around 4/6 – one for a multiple maybe?
13:55 – Champions Sprint
This is a very difficult puzzle to solve with 20 sprinters taking their chance to land Group 1 glory.
The pace could prove very important here and it would be no surprise if they split across into two groups with their being pace angles either side of the draw, I have pace specifically coming from Audience and Elite Status in 2 and 3, then from Art Power, Swingalong and Bucanero Fuerte in 12, 13 and 15.
I am therefore hopeful that MONTASSIB is drawn well in stall 6 and that he can lead a strong effort to back up his previous win in the Sprint Cup at Haydock. He is a horse I have always been a fan of and he has took his game up a level this season, specifically when having ideal conditions – which is a truly ran 6 furlong race on testing ground.
He should have everything in his favour at Ascot and the stiff finish should also play to his strength – I struggle to see him not being involved at the finish and he looks a good each way bet at around 6/1 – especially with extra places being offered by quite a few firms.
Arguably Art Power is overpriced in here at 20/1 considering his pretty solid record in this race, however he had his own way in front last year and that is unlikely to be the case again.
I won’t go on as you can make a case for most, including the rank outsiders but I want Montassib on my side.
14:35 – Fillies & Mares
A full field line up for this race and the market is led by KALPANA, just that now she is available at 9/2 rather than the original 2/1 that she opened up at with most firms. I would always recommend Net88 if placing the night before, as BOG applies as soon as pricing is available with Net88. Sometimes 2 or more days in advance!
I was not going to be interested in her at those odds despite her improving profile but the new price is very tempting as I think she has the most obvious upside to be the best filly in here.
She was heavily backed to win the Ribblesdale ag Ascot following a big effort when touched off by Friendly Soul in a listed race earlier in the season (that looks fairly good form now). She disappointed there considering that punt but she has kicked on winning her last pair of starts, notably the latter when very impressive in the September Stakes at Kempton.
The ground is the big question for her but if the Balding team are happy to run her, I’m now happy to back her.
Due to the uncertainty and price of Kalpana earlier this week - I was looking at other options and nearly backed Doha at 33/1 before talking myself out of it with the trip an unknown.
I am going to swing a few quid at SEA THEME though who is currently the outsider at 50/1 – with 66/1 in places. You can argue she hasn’t been great this season as her only win this season came in a listed race at Deauville. That is understandable, however, I liked her last run in the Prix Royallieu when she finished 6th to Grateful – notably with the angle to drop back in trip. I thought she travelled really well in that race before just emptying a bit in the final stages. A drop back to 12 furlongs and staying on a testing surface could see her in best light and she could outrun her odds.
15:15 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes
You can easily argue that CHARYN should be unbeaten this season and I am more than happy to back him to retire off the back of a win at 7/4 – with my main worry of being beaten, being the ride given to him.
His body of work this season has been impressive and he has every box ticked going into his last assignment: Course, Distance and Ground.
Although Charyn’s price makes the race look a tempting each-way proposition, I think all of his rivals need to improve a bit more than some ratings suggest as I feel he is certainly more than 1lb and 2lb superior to Henry Longfellow and Facteur Cheval respectively.
The interesting ones are Tamfana who is clearly on the up, but she is short at 10/3 and the other one is Prague, who is quite a remarkable story, but he really does have tk take his form to the next level even to hit the frame.
Anything over 7/4 would be advisable to back Charyn in my book and if he became 2’s that would be huge.
15:55 – Champions Stakes
The Champions Stakes has been billed as a contest between Economics and Calandagan and rightly so. Both of these three year-olds look top class and I am really struggling to split them and struggling to see anything beating them. If I was forced between the pair, I’d choose Economics but I’m not forced so hopefully get to them see battle it out at the finish.
The one I do think is probably overpriced based off her best form is NASHWA and she is available at 28/1 without Economics and 16/1 without both of the market leaders.
She has not been at her best this season but the Gosden team seem to think she should be primed for this off the back of her run in the Sun Chariot and I think at her best she could definitely finish 3rd. She should have a sharper turn of foot than most of these as long as the rain doesn’t blunt her speed too much – that could be a real weapon in what is potentially a slowly run race.
I have backed her each way at 40/1 and at 10/1 without the market principles each way – that last bet is a great bet if you can get it.
16:35 – Balmoral Handicap
It has not been a great day if you are needing to get out of jail needing the winner of the Balmoral.
This race has threw up big priced winners over the years but I do think the top end of the market looks fairly solid. Queue Alaksan Gold winning this one.
The one I have took a chance on is HOLLOWAY BOY who has been very consistent this season for Karl Burke.
Remarkably, last time out was the first he had won a race since his debut shock in the Chesham! That form looks very strong too as he defeated Prague who won the Joel Stakes next time out and is a live outsider in the QEII. Even prior to that, this season he has been very consistent, finishing 5th, 2nd, 3rd and 3rd in big handicaps.
He is only 5lb higher for his work this season in this race and I see no reason why he can’t run another good race today at a course he clearly likes. He is 10/1, those odds look more than fair for an each way bet – and who knows, maybe getting his head back in front will kick him on again.
BeGambleAware | 18+ Only
Comments