By Sam Cook
Monday Night Football- Baltimore Ravens (5-3) @ New Orleans Saints (3-5)
We get another great matchup for MNF this week but I’m hoping it’s closer in score and in line with my predictions after the Bengals blowout loss to the Browns last week. What should be guaranteed here are points- the Ravens score 26 a game and the Saints 24.9 both are top 8 scoring offences. On defence as well neither team are too sharp allowing 22.9 (Ravens 14th most) and 25 PPG (Saints 7th most) so I’d be hopeful of a high scoring game and I think the over 46.5 is far too low so that’s a bet for me at 5/6. In terms of result it really is quite a close game as the 1.5 point handicap to the Ravens suggest but I’d be taking the Saints as I back the veteran QB Andy Dalton to get more out of his injury strewn offence than the erratic Lamar Jackson will out of his. The Saints to win and 48+ match points at 11/4 is a bet I really like the look of.
Onto the aforementioned injuries and we’ll start with the visiting Ravens who will be missing Pro Bowl tight end Mark Andrews which is a massive blow for them. Lamar has struggled a lot of late in terms of his passing game with only 3 TDs and 1 INT in his last 3 games at an average of only 189.3 YPG and without his main weapon Andrews, who has accounted for 61 YPG and 5 of the Ravens 15 passing TDs, it’s my expectation that Lamar will struggle. Isaiah Likely the rookie TE stepped up last week recording 6 catches on 7 targets for 77 yards and a TD and he may well see a similar rate of targets. Other options include the explosive Duvernay and Robinson with Duvernay recording 3.5 receptions a game and having a quarter of his 24 catches on the season going for more than 20 yards. Meanwhile Robinson also shone against the Buccs catching 6/8 for 64 yards and Ravens fans will hope he can replicate this tonight. It is worth noting that the running backs do get involved in the passing game and Kenyan Drakes’s over 12.5 receiving yards seems low but with Bateman missing, it is likely we see further utilisation of the RBs.
The Saints D line up having allowed the 7th most points per game at 25 however they actually don’t allow that many yards ranking 21st with only 320.8 YPG allowed. Opponents aren’t necessarily the cause of their losing record but instead they manage to beat themselves having given away 57 penalties this season, the 5th most in the league. Another glaring issue is only 2 interceptions which is the 2nd least but they generally rank ok- for example 11th fewest rush yards at 112.5 YPG, 17th for passing yards at 208.3 and only 10 passing TDs but a whopping 486 penalty yards have killed them. If they can remain disciplined I think they could stop the Ravens and limit them to field goals a lot. My defensive player to mention would be Pete Werner who averages almost 9 tackles/assists per game with 52 of his 71 being solo tackles- the linebacker gets everywhere and if markets become available for him he’s worth checking out.
Shifting from the Saints defence to their offence and they actually put up the 3rd most yards per game at 394.4 behind only the Bills and Chiefs with this including 253.1 passing YPG. Since veteran Andy Dalton has taken over this has dropped slightly to 235 YPG however he’s far more efficient recording 9 TDs and 4 INTs in his 5 games relative to Jameis Winston’s 5 and 5 in only 3 games. Dalton completes an average of 21 passes a game at a rate of 65.2% and has slowly started to bond with the offence as his average has increased to 250 YPG across his last 3 and 7 of his 9 TDs coming in those 3 games. His main receiving threat is standout offensive rookie of the year candidate Chris Olave who averages 78.1 YPG with 9 targets a game catching just over 5 of those. He’ll be the main focus again and is a solid deep threat that could challenge the Raven’s secondary especially with Michael Thomas on the IR and Jarvis Landry only questionable to play. Landry has averaged 42 yards per game when healthy and so if he does return I’d be taking the under on him. The star player in both run and receiving is Alvin Kamara who averages 68.8 rushing yards per game off 16 attempts to help the Saints to the 9th most rush yards in the league (141.3 per game). Pair those rushing yards with his 5.5 catches a game and he becomes a huge threat. In his last 3 games he’s averaged 59 receiving yards with 7.3 catches a game therefore his receptions over 4.5 market looks like NAP material and something I’ll certainly be backing. Taysom Hill is another weapon who can rush, pass or receive and has recorded a 100 yard game this season. If we rule out that outlying game then he averages 37.5 yards per game and is someone who can offer sneaky value especially when creating bet builders. Juwan Johnson would be the last port of call in this injured diminished offence, on the season an average of 2.5 catches on 4 targets isn't impressive but over his last 3 games 11 catches on 15 targets for almost 30 YPG is far more impressive. He’s a player to back on the over receptions market rather than yards.
Defensively the Ravens allow a lot of pass yards, 266.6 per game ranks them as the 5th highest and the in form Dalton will try and take advantage of this. On the other side of the offence their run defence is very good allowing the 3rd fewest YPG at only 97.5. This feeds into my prediction that Kamara will be utilised far more in the passing game than the rushing hence his over 4.5 receptions being my NAP. Their 7.4 yards per pass conceded average could allow Olave to go deep- the Saints completing 26 passes of 20 yards or more, but it may also lead Dalton to get sloppy and throw up an interception against a team that has already made 8 this season (top 10). Marcus Williams is the man responsible for 3 of those but it will be Marlon Humphrey covering Olave in most situations and so his average of 3.5 tackles/assists across the season may be tested more, which is why I think he could be a defensive player bet with the line set at exactly 3.5 but offering 6/5. If he does his job properly he’ll be tackling Olave a lot more than 3.5 times I’d expect.
My final thoughts on this game are as stated in the intro- I think Dalton has more ability to manage an injured team without its stars than Lamar does. Granted Lamar is missing his star tight end, arguably doesn't have a WR1 anyway and also is missing his number 1 running back whereas Dalton is only missing Michael Thomas who’s been constantly injured of late and maybe Jarvis Landry. I think for the Ravens to win they have to stop Kamara which is easier said than done given he has an average of 145.25 rushing/receiving yards in his last 4 games and he finally found the endzone last week (3 times) so if he can replicate anything close to this it’s game over for the Ravens. Lamar will have to return to the form of his first 3 games and I don’t see that happening. I will be backing him on rushing overs because I think he will have watched Justin Fields set the all time QB single game rushing record last night and I believe he’ll have an egotistical point to prove, but my score prediction would be Saints to win 27- 22.
Tips
Kamara over 4.5 receptions @5/6 NAP
Kamara and Lamar both 60+ rushing yards @11/4 Sky boost
Saints Money Line @Evens
Over 46.5 points @10/11 (Advised in the into Saints to win and 48+ points at 11/4 if you want to double the Money Line and over selections)
Olave over 63.5 receiving yards @5/6
Each team to score 20+ points @11/10
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