By Sam Cook
Ravens Passing Offence
5th most PPG- 26
12th most YPG- 359.6
25th most passing YPG- 193.8
31st for pass plays over 20 yards- only 17
Passing 15 TD to 6 INT but 5 TDs and 4 INTs in the past 5 games
Lamar 18.5 comps a game on 29.4 attempts- 63% for average of 204.4
Last 3 he has 3 TDs to 1 INT- 53/86 61.6% for 189.3 YPG
Main threat are his legs- 69 rush YPG and 2 TDs but not since week 3.
Only 60 YPG last 3 but faces Saints who limited QB rushes a lot- Kyler only 30 yards albeit in a shootout.
Lamar sacked 17 times- quite low.
Saints Passing Offence
8th most PPG- 24.9
3rd most YPG- 394.4
7th most pass YPG- 253.1
Only Lions and Eagles feature in both top 10s- Eagles unbeaten & Lions are chaotic.
26 pass plays over 20 yards but 8 over 40- tied 2nd most.
14 TDs to 9 INTs- 7-3 in their last 3- all INTs came vs Cardinals
Dalton 21 comps a game on 32.2 attempts- 65.2% for average of 235
Dalton responsible for 9 TDs to 4 INTs- significantly safer than Jameis- also only sacked 4 times in his 5 games.
Averaging 250 YPG over his last 3.
Ravens Rushing Offence
2nd most rush YPG- 165.6
Tied 3rd for rush plays over 20 yards- 11
Lamar big rushing threat- 69 YPG but only 60 YPG in his last 3.
Team averages 5.7 YPC which is league high average
7 rushing TDs which is fairly average- struggle to convert in the red zone?
Ranked 26th for red zone conversion in their last 3 at only 46.15% (Number of plays inside opponents 20 yards that result in TDs)
Lamar massively leads team in rushing with the rest of the backfield rotating due to injuries. Lamar 553, Drake 251, Hill, 179, Edwards 131 & Dobbins 123.
Edwards best for YPG, outside of Lamar, at 65.5. Doubtful to play but I’d expect him to play on a snap count.
Drake leads the backfield tonight most likely- boom or bust as the last 3 games have been 62, 5 then 119- all between 7 and 11 carries.
Facing a Saints D that allows 112.5 rush YPG & kept Jacobs to only 43 when he’d averaged 114.6 per game in his last 3.
Ravens Receiving Stats
15 receiving TDs but only 3 in their last 3.
Only 204.4 receiving yards per game- 26th ranked and an average of 11 YPC which is average.
Mark Andrews, leading yards, is out. Had averaged 61 YPG and caught 5 of the 15 passing TDs- huge miss.
Bateman returned last week vs Buccs- averages 47.5 YPG but only 3 catches on 5.5 targets. 4/4 for 31 last week and 4/5 for 42 the week prior.
TE Isiah Likely has stepped up- only 16/25 for 181 on the season but 6/7 for 77 and a TD vs the Buccs. Expect big performance with no Andrews.
Duvernay explosive option- 6/24 catches gone for over 20 yards and is making 4 catches for 6.3 targets a game. Over 3.5 receptions at 8/11 looks value.
Demarcus Robinson stepped up last week-6/8 for 64 and may see something similar again.
Not much to be optimistic about for Ravens in the passing game- expect attritional run game and then quick pass options to players from the backfield. I expect Drake to get a number of catches and over 12.5 receiving yards seems really low. If you can back receptions take them.
Saints Rushing Stats
9th most rush YPG- 141.3
Only 6 rush plays over 20 yards.
9 Rushing TDs all year- only 2 in their last 3.
Have the same redzone offence conversion percentage as Baltimore at 46.15%.
Led by Kamara- 413 yards averaging 68.8
Kamara attempting just under 16 rushes per game. 18 for 62 & a TD last week, 11 for 49 Week 7 and 19 for 99 Week 6. Averaging 16 carries for 70 yards- very reflective of his 6 game season average.
Taysom Hill also had some big numbers but boosted by a 112 yard game against the Seahawks. Outside of that- he averages 37.5 on 5 carries a game at 7.5 YPC.
Ingram made no rush attempts last week but is a strong support runner for Kamara. Only 4 carries for 6 yards against Arizona in week 7 so maybe being phased out.
Dalton at QB no running threat at all- 12 for 28 all season.
Saints Recieving Stats
265.1 receiving yards per game at an average of 11.5- 7th most yards and 13th best average.
14 receiving TDs which is top 10- 7 in their last 3 games though.
Rookie Olave leading receiver averaging 9 targets a game and catching just over 4 of those. Has 547 yards at 78.1 YPG but only 2 TDs.
Kamara 2nd receiver- great for fantasy football- catching 5.5 a game on 7.5 targets but for far less than Olave. Only 287 yards and 8.7 average compared to Olave’s 14.8 average. Did catch 2 TDs vs the Raiders.
Kamara 9/10 vs Raiders for 96, 7/10 for 56 vs Cards, 6/9 for 25 vs Bengals. Averaging 59 yards but 7.3 catches a game which is huge. Over of 4.5 is NAP material.
Jarvis Landry may return and has averaged 42 yards per game in his 4 appearances- if confirmed to start take any overs below 30 and receptions around 2.5.
Juwan Johnson primary TE- only averaging 2.5 catches on 4.25 targets a game on the season but of late he’s 11/15 for 88 in his last 3 games. Not huge yardage but volume- worth taking over 2.5 or 3.5.
Taysom Hull only 3 receptions all year but 2 in his last 2 including a TD- couple his running threat he’s backable for anytime TD but only 6/4 which is short.
Ravens Defensive Stats
Ravens allowing 22.9 PPG 14th most
364.3 YPG allowed- 10th most
266.6 Pass YPG allowed- 5th most
97.5 rush YPG allowed- 3rd fewest
Allow 7.4 yards per pass- Olave on deep threats could be dangerous- Saints have 26 completions of 20 yards or more.
Allowed 12 passing TDs which is very average and made 8 INTs which is top 10.
23 sacks ranks them level with Buffalo who are seen as an elite defence.
Justin Houston has 6 sacks.
Patrick Queen 53 tackles averaging 7.5 a game.
Marlon Humphrey averages 3.5 tackles/assists a game and the line is exactly 3.5 but is 6/5- could be worth a punt because Olave will see a lot of targets and he’ll be covering him.
Marcus Williams has 3 interceptions- Dalton will try to avoid him.
Saints Defensive Stats
Allow 25 PPG- 7th most.
320.8 YPG- 11th fewest so they’re sloppy in the redzone allowing points.
208.3 passing YPG- mirrors Lamars average and is around the league average ranked 17th.
Allow 112.5 rushing YPG- 11th fewest.
Points and yards don’t correlate.
Given away 57 penalties- over 7 a game so they’re beating themselves.
Penalties have amassed 486 yards hence why they concede so many relative to their good defence in terms of yards. Ravens have 43 penalties for 390 yards by contrast- ranked 5th and 12th compared to 28th and 27th.
Allow 6.9 yards per pass but have only made 2 interceptions- 2nd lowest in the league.
Allowed 10 TDs which is impressive but inability to get interceptions costs them.
19 sacks which is very average, but Lamar is one of the longest QBs to throw (2.96 seconds) so they may have more opportunity.
Davids & Jordan both have 5 sacks
Pete Werner 71 tackles/assists- almost 9 a game.
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