The wait is finally over with NFL action returning to our screens and as is tradition, the Super Bowl champions will kick the season off and they’re facing a major divisional rival with Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Baltimore Ravens.
Three of the last four meetings have been won by the Chiefs, including in the AFC Championship game earlier this year. Number one seed Baltimore lost 17-10 that day but the last time the teams met at Arrowhead was a 61-point thriller in 2019.
Kansas City won that game 33-28 whilst they won the meeting the year prior in overtime, highlighting how close these games can be and that’s why the bookmakers have put in a tight handicap with the line set at just -2.5 in the Chiefs’ favour.
That is effectively what the bookies will give a home team anyway meaning this is viewed as somewhat of a pick’em and we’ve picked out seven bets for you to punt on and cheer for on Friday morning.
NFL Opening Night Tips
Patrick Mahomes over 266.5 passing yards - 3 Point win at 5/6
Travis Kelce over 57.5 receiving yards - 3 Point win at 5/6
Patrick Mahomes to score a TD - 0.5 Point win at 9/2
Derrick Henry over 63.5 rushing yards - 2 Point Win at 5/6
Henry and Kelce both to score a TD - 1.25 Point Win at 7/2
Bet Builder at 14/1 on Bet Victor - 1 Point Win
Long Shot Bet Bulder at 38/1 on Bet Victor - 0.25 Point Win
Smash the Mahomes and Kelce overs
That last game at Arrowhead between these sides saw Patrick Mahomes do Patrick Mahomes things and the same can be expected in the early hours of Friday morning. He threw for 374 yards and three touchdowns that night and the first standout bet is to target Mahomes on the passing overs.
His line is set at just 266.5 yards, a figure that he has eclipsed in every single regular season clash between the teams. In fact, Mahomes averages 369.8 yards against the Ravens in the regular season so whilst this might be a season opener and be a bit tense, he should sail past that mark.
Patrick Mahomes over 266.5 passing yards - 5 Point win at 5/6
The next obvious question is who will benefit from a strong Patrick Mahomes performance? More often than not in recent years, that answer has been Travis Kelce and the tight-end has a brilliant record against the Ravens. Back in January he registered 11 receptions for 116 yards and one touchdown.
His regular season record against them with Mahomes as his quarterback sees him record an average of 90.5 yards, and almost seven catches. WIth a line of 57.5 yards, he’s one to hammer on the overs.
Travis Kelce over 57.5 receiving yards - 5 Point win at 5/6
Another bet to look at, at far better odds than the generic 5/6 for a handicap line would be Patrick Mahomes to score a rushing TD. Interestingly, number 15 did not score a single rushing TD in 2023 but he thrives on them in the big games, scoring five in the playoffs throughout his career. With Isaiah Pacheco not potent on the goalline, scoring just seven in 2023, Mahomes is a tempting bet at 9/2.
Patrick Mahomes to score a TD - 1 Point win at 9/2
Will Derrick Henry dominate in Baltimore?
The Raven’s biggest off-season move and arguably one of the biggest across the NFL was Derrick Henry leaving Tennessee to make the move to Baltimore. He has undoubtedly increased his chances of earning a ring but he now moves into a backfield with the reigning MVP in the form of dual-threat QB Lamar Jackson.
Jackson took 148 carries in 2023, whilst the remainder of the Tennessee team outside of Henry were only afforded 164 touches. Accommodating King Henry could be difficult and Thursday night will be the first time we get to see how it plays out. However, Baltimore would be stupid not to use him given his record against the Chiefs.
Henry has recorded rushing figures of 188, 86 and 115 yards in his last three regular season games against the Chiefs, scoring four touchdowns during that time. The Chiefs were in the bottom half of teams in the NFL for rushing yards allowed in 2023 and with Henry’s line at just 63.5, he’s a bet.
Derrick Henry over 63.5 rushing yards - 2 Point Win at 5/6
His touchdown record in recent years speaks for itself as well and with Travis Kelce boasting a strong record against the Ravens, never mind on the big stage, Sky Bet’s boost of both players to score a touchdown at 7/2 is too good to turn down.
Henry and Kelce both to score a TD - 1.25 Point Win at 7/2
Who else could shine on the opening night of the NFL?
With the season starting, it’s best to stick to the reliable players and that means looking at the likes of Mark Andrews, Isaiah Pacheo and perhaps Baltimore’s second-year Zay Flowers.
The three are the most obvious candidates for targets and carries respectively and pairing them with the above selections of Kelce, Mahomes and Henry hitting their overs creates a nice looking bet builder to kick off the NFL season.
Taking Mahomes, Kelce and Henry at their stated lines and then backing Mark Andrews 40+ yards, Zay Flowers 4+ receptions and Isiah Pacheco to have 12+ carries works out at 14/1. Stretching each of Mahomes, Kelce and Henry slightly above their handicap line and to over 279.5, 79.5 and 79.5 respectively creates a 38/1 bet, which is worth a smaller bet.
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