The Ultimate Guide to the AFC West
NFL fans will be getting sick of the AFC West, much like they got sick of the AFC East across the 2000s, and much like Brady and his bunch of Patriots, there’s a new Chief in town and his name is Patrick Mahomes.
The quarterback was drafted out of Texas Tech in 2017 and after redshirting in year one he’s become a force to be reckoned with for the whole NFL, becoming a two time Super Bowl Champion, two time Super Bowl MVP, two time league MVP and five time Pro Bowler. It’s fair to say he’s pretty good.
So the question must be now, can Mahomes lead the Chiefs to the Super Bowl again? Will they win the AFC West for an eighth consecutive year, and if they don’t, then who will?
Here’s your Ultimate Guide to the AFC West from a betting perspective with all odds taken from The Pools, unless otherwise specified.
Kansas City Chiefs
● 2022 Divisional Finish - 1st
● 2022 Playoff Finish - Super Bowl Champions
● 2023 First Round Draft Pick/s - DE, Felix Anudike-Uzomah (Kansas State)
● Divisional Odds - 8/13
● Super Bowl Odds - 11/2
The Chiefs are strong favourites to lift the AFC West for an eighth consecutive time and the main reason for that is simply Patrick Mahomes. As obvious as this is for a preview, it’s simply true. He does stuff on a football field that few others can dream of doing, never mind attempt and then pull off.
He’s coming off his second MVP season clocking up 5,250 passing yards in the regular season, an average of 308.8 yards per game (YPG), and even more impressive is the fact that he threw for over 500 yards more than any other QB (Justin Herbert, 2nd with 4,739). He also threw for six more TDs (41) than any other QB (Joe Burrow, 2nd with 35) with Travis Kelce (12) being the beneficiary of those TD passes.
What might concern fans or punters would be that outside of Travis Kelce the receiving corps for the Chiefs is far from ideal. When you look at other contenders in the AFC, namely divisional Championship rivals Cincinnati, there’s a plethora of targets to throw towards with Ja’Marr Chase (7th, 87.2 YPG) and Tee Higgins (25th, 64.3 YPG) both ranking inside the top 25 players for yardage per game. On the other hand, Kelce ranks 11th (78.7 YPG) with the Chiefs’ next most productive receiver being JuJu Smith-Schuster (58.3 YPg), who is now off the team.
The Chiefs did add Rashee Rice in the draft (pick 55) but he becomes another young piece in a thin WR room of former first round pick Kadarius Toney (171 yards in 2022), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (687 yards in 2022) and 2022 draft pick Sky Moore (250 yards in 2022). Justyn Ross has turned heads in pre-season camp but there is serious concern regarding Mahomes’ targets.
Best Bets
● Mahomes Most Passing TDs (Regular Season) - 11/4 - He might be favourite in the market and it’s a long time to wait for a payoff that’s shy of 3/1 but in four of his five seasons as starter he has reached 37 passing TDs or more. During that same time period it has been surpassed six times, the retired Tom Brady being responsible for two of those. Very few players can average above two TD passes a game, Mahomes is that guy though. COnsequent to this it makes Travis Kelce (7/1) for the most receiving TDs a solid bet.
● Mahomes over 36.5 Passing TDs - 10/11 - He’s failed to do so just once, an injured season, in which he still registered 26 in 14 and took the Chiefs to the Super Bowl. History tells us that 37 passing TDs is Mahomes’ baseline.
Los Angeles Chargers
● 2022 Divisional Finish - 2nd
● 2022 Playoff Finish - Lost in Wildcard Round
● 2023 First Round Pick/s - WR, Quentin Johnston (TCU)
● Divisional Odds - 3/1
● Super Bowl Odds - 22/1
The Chargers rank as the most likely side to take the AFC West crown from the Chiefs according to the bookies however they’re still a huge 3/1 shot to do so, highlighting the current era of dominance that Andy Reid’s men have out West. All chances of doing so are stacked on their young QB Justin Herbert who will have to bounce back from a relative down year.
Herbert was exceptional in his rookie season earning the honour of Offensive Rookie of the Year before making the Pro Bowl in 2021, but 2022 didn’t quite click for the former Oregon Duck. He still ranked second for the most yards across the NFL with 4,739 but with just 25 TDs there wasn’t enough production and he found himself tied with the likes of an ageing Tom Brady, a concussion affected Tua Tagovailoa and fellow rising star Trevor Lawrence. It’s certainly not bad company to be in but to be that elite QB who can guide the Chargers to success he needs to hit the tallies of 38 in 2021.
He certainly has the receiving corps for that to be possible with veterans Keenan Allen and Mike Williams being joined by first round rookie Quentin Johnston, whilst Tight End Gerald Everett is no slouch and Running Back Austin Ekeler is the clear second best receiving back in the league behind only Christian McCaffrey.
Injuries affected Allen last season and so Josh Palmer was relied upon, clocking up 769 yards, so there’s no doubt that Herbert could easily have multiple 1,000 yard receivers which would make him an interesting bet for the most passing yards across the regular season - a stat he has come second in the past two seasons.
The biggest factor for the Chargers though offensively has been do-it-all RB Austin Ekeler with the former undrafted man racking up 18 TDs (13 rush, 5 receiving) which was the most across the whole NFL. Whilst there’s been additions in the receiving corps in rookie Johnston, there’s no extra competition at running back so Ekeler for another monster season is well on the cards.
Best Bets
● Justin Herbert Most Passing Yards (Regular Season) - 9/2 - He’s come second the past two seasons in this market behind Mahomes who has lost his leading WR, and Brady who has since retired. Fellow 2020 draftees Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa may well challenge him but Herbert historically should be the guy.
● Austin Ekeler Most Rush & Receiving TDs (Regular Season) - 7/1 - There should be no lack of touches for Ekeler in this LA offence and the candidates who challenged him in 2022 have seen their situations worsen. Jamaal Williams (17 TDs) has headed to New Orleans who have a backfield that is packed, whilst Davante Adams (14) now has Jimmy Garoppolo as his QB who is far less qualified than the underrated Derek Carr.
Denver Broncos
● 2022 Divisional Finish - 4th
● 2022 Playoff Finish - N/A
● 2023 First Round Pick/s - N/A
● Divisional Odds - 6/1
● Super Bowl Odds - 40/1
It was a difficult first season in Denver for Russell Wilson and no stat reflected that more than the fact he was sacked 55 times across just 15 games, a season high alongside Justin Fields of Chicago Bears. It’s no wonder that he only threw for 16 TDs given that he was seemingly spending most of the time on the deck, but those 16 TDs marked the lowest level of production during his eleven year career.
He also went for 11 interceptions which marked his second worst ever season in terms of ball security, and had his lowest completion percentage by a chunk as he completed at 60.5% compared to his career average of 64.6%. His receiving corps hasn’t changed much in the off season but he does now have a new head coach in Sean Payton who could help stretch the field.
Stretching the field would be a benefit to the likes of Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton who are both physical however Jeudy certainly needs work at the catch point, bringing down just 52 of his 113 targets in his rookie season, although at an average of 16.5 Yards Per Catch (YPC). He’s since improved to a 67% catch rate at 14.5 YPC, which ranked tenth among WRs in 2022. He’s certainly one to watch, providing his current injury doesn’t hinder him too much for the season start.
Whilst the Broncos did finish last in the West last season they actually showed the best defence in the division conceding 359 points (14th fewest across the league), however they ranked seventh best for yards per game conceded at just 320. The standouts in their defence are Safety Justin Simmons and Cornerback Pat Surtain, the latter could be an outside shout for the most interceptions this season, and coupling that sort of season alongside an improvement offensively courtesy of Sean Payton could make the Broncos playoff contenders.
Best Bets
● Justin Simmons Most Defensive Interceptions (Sky Bet) - 8/1 - Whilst Surtain is the standout corner for the Broncos it’s their safety Simmons who led them for interceptions in 2022, clocking up six in just 12 games, joint for the most across the league and in fewer games than his rivals. If you fancy Surtain to make a strong display then he is available in the same market at 50/1.
● Sean Payton Coach of the Year - 11/1 - Coach of the Year almost always goes to a new coach who takes a terrible team and turns them into a playoff team with the winner in four of the last six years seeing a new Head Coach earn the award. Payton is one of just five new Head Coaches this year and has the most viable route to the playoffs it would seem as well.
Las Vegas Raiders
● 2022 Divisional Finish - 3rd
● 2022 Playoff Finish - N/A
● 2023 First Round Pick/s - DE, Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech)
● Divisional Odds - 16/1
● Super Bowl Odds - 80/1
The Raiders are one of the teams who could find themselves competing for the first overall pick, such is the lack of expectation for them, with Josh McDaniels surely one of key candidates to be the first head coach fired.
Long term Raider Derek Carr has left and in comes long term injury concern Jimmy Garoppolo which will be a huge concern for Raiders fans. What is positive though is that rookie QB Aiden O’Connell has looked very impressive in pre-season for what that’s worth. Garoppolo lost his palace through injury at the 49ers but there could be arguments that he wouldn’t even start ahead of Mr Irrelevant Brock Purdy.
Jimmy G has twice thrown for almost 4,000 yards but they are also the only seasons in which he has played a dozen or more games. In 11 appearances last season he went for 2,437 yards at an impressive passer rating but in a team with plenty of weapons and an elite defence. With the Raiders he will have Davante Adams and little else, the rookie TE Michael Mayer potentially being someone who sees a surprising amount of targets.
Adams clocked 1,516 receiving yards in 2022 with 14 TDs, ranking third across the league in both metrics, but as the outright leading receiving TD leader. It did help that he was targeted a massive 180 times, second most in the league behind Justin Jefferson (184), but with the lack of receiving corps and the loss of Darren Waller then Adams could genuinely be knocking on 200 targets. Whilst the QB play may well be ordinary the sheer volume will see him notch 1,000 plus yards for the fourth straight season.
Best Bets
● Raiders to finish 4th in the AFC West - 4/6 - this is short odds for a reason, it is highly likely to happen. Whilst not advised as a single it could be a handy accumulator leg to throw in if you’re making a selection across each of the eight divisions. For those who are more inclined to take a riskier bet then predicting the West forecast of Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers and Raiders would pay 4/1.
● Michael Mayer Most Rookie Receptions - 25/1 - This is a long shot, and one that is a personal fancy based on loving Mayer throughout the draft process, but it comes down to sheer volume. Tight Ends notoriously take a while to acclimatise to the NFL but the best TE prospect in recent years, Kyle Pitts, saw 68 receptions in 2021 (third most for a rookie TE), and whilst Mayer isn’t as talented he could rival it. Outside of Adams there is minimal for Jimmy G to target, Jimmy G is also well known for loving his TE’s and has a Head Coach in Josh McDaniels who comes from the New England scheme who built a dynasty on using Rob Gronkowski. That’s the logic behind Mayer breaking the TE trend, but what about the other rookies? It’s widely accepted that outside of Jaxon Smith-Njigba it’s not the most elite WR class, however JSN has landed with the Seahawks and is firmly rooted behind Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, similarly WR2 in the draft (Quentin Johnston) is behind Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, Zay Flowers is in a run first Baltimore offence and Jordan Addison is behind Justin Jefferson and has to compete with TJ Hockenson. 25/1 is certainly worth a poke in this punter’s eyes.
Divisional Bets
● Chiefs/Broncos Straight Forecast - 10/3
● Broncos to reach the playoffs - 7/4
● Justin Herbert Most Pass Yards - 2/1 (Sky Bet)
● Most Rookie Receptions Michael Mayer, Most Receiving Yards Davante Adams, Most Rushing Yards Josh Jacobs
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